Sunday, November 15, 2009

the rationale of statistics


In our previous discussion, I mentioned about the role of decisions in business, and the approaches in which decision-making process is accomplished. When we decide intuitively, we are supported by "gut feeling" and personal judgment. Deciding rationally, however, requires a more systematic, linear approach. We base our decision or decisions from a given information or data. Quantitative approach to decision-making is based on numerical information. Information is processed data. We can only produce information when we have data to process. The data become meaningful when it is processed, thus, becomes information. Information is insightful. Having accumulated information and knowing the relationships between and among information makes us knowledgeable.
Managers or decision-makers, nevertheless, use wisdom and not knowledge in deciding. When they apply what they know, that is the beginning of wisdom.
"Knowing but not doing is knowing nothing."

Consider this: we will not become wise persons if we are not knowledgeable. Knowledge is not gained if we lack information, and there will be no information if there is no data. Hence, data is vital much as information is very important.
Data ( plural of Latin word datum) are raw facts or figures. These are gathered through observations. And the characteristics of those being observed are called variables. Data are meaningless until processed. Data are inputs and information are outputs. There can be no accurate information when the inputs (data) are erroneous. Data to be useful must be accurate and timely.
Statistics is importantly about data.

statistics & business: mapping the relationship



Business, in general, is everybody's business. When we define business informally, it could be any activity with a purpose. Studying, teaching, playing, eating, and other things that we do have a purpose, hence, they are businesses. All of us have businesses to do. However, business can refer to the business for-profit or non-profit. This kind of purposeful activity intends to earn money or receive donations from donors. One book defines business as "an entity designed to consistently deliver a specific type of result to a specific type of consumer, and to continuously improve itself over time." If we dissect this definition we will come up with a meaningful and encompassing interpretation. A business is an entity because it is distinct and separate from its owners. The business has its own personality that it can negotiate or transact itself with other persons or businesses. It is designed to "consistently" deliver a specific type of result -- products. Products can be intangible or tangible. If the business offers a particular service it must do good in offering such service. Before the business considers diversification, it must master its core products. Products of a business must be delivered to specific consumer. In marketing, we call this target marketing. A highly specified target market is a market niche. A business to succeed finds its niche in the market. So as to survive, a business should "continuously" improve itself. We can learn from the illustration of the "boiled frog." If you put a frog in a boiling water, it jumps out quickly from the water. But try to put the frog in a cold water and gradually raise the temperature, it obliviously feel the rising temperature until the frog is boiled. The same is true to a business. A business becomes a "boiled frog" if it becomes insensitive to the changes in the environment. As one saying goes "if you are not growing, you are dying." Businesses should find ways to innovate and create value on their products. These innovations will be coming from the changes in the business environment.
"if you are not growing, you are dying."

With this brief description of a business, needless to say, its management is not easy. There are many things that need to be done to keep the business working on its vision, mission, and goals. These activities from acquiring raw materials to hiring or firing employees require simple to complex decisions. Decision making process has been a vital component of business. It is the process of selecting a course of action, and the selected course of action is called the decision.
Managers are decision-makers. They do a lot of decisions to sustain the operations of the business. How can they be helped to fulfill this role? By means of qualitative and quantitative approaches to decision-making. Managers, in one hand, can rely on their gut feeling, intuition, and biases. On another hand, they might rely on their rationality, logic, and mathematics. Or they might utilize both sides of the brain to make important business decisions. There are decisions that can be solved qualitatively or quantitatively.
When the decision-making process is supported by numerical data manipulation, it is a quantitative approach. Statistics is a quantitative field of study. When we apply statistics to business we call it business statistics. Statistics is one of the various quantitative tools that can help decision-makers do their tasks.